Why InP Wafer Prices Tripled in 2026, and How North American Photonics Buyers Can Secure Supply

A six-inch InP wafer now averages about $5,000, up roughly 250% from about $1,400, since China’s indium export controls took effect — Reuters, June 2026. IQE plc’s 2026 interim results, published 7 September 2026, show the demand side: photonics revenue rose 45% year-over-year to £38.5 million, and IQE is converting existing capacity in H2 to meet AI and data-center demand.

What changed this week

IQE’s 2026 Interim Results (Cardiff, 7 September 2026) reported H1 revenue of £64.6 million, up 43%; photonics revenue reached £38.5 million, up 45%, with wireless at £26.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at £6.0 million versus a £(0.4) million loss a year earlier, with full-year guidance above 30% growth as IQE converts tooling to add InP capacity.

AXT Inc.’s Q2 2026 results (30 July 2026) confirm the trend: record revenue of $47.6 million, with InP revenue of $30.7 million versus $3.6 million a year earlier. AXT has needed China MOFCOM export permits to ship InP substrates made in China; permits were granted in 2025.

Why InP wafer prices tripled

China’s Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on indium — with tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, and molybdenum — on 4 February 2025; InP substrates now require export permits to leave the country. China produces nearly 70% of world indium, so a permitting step at the source ripples through the chain. Asia Times (3 September 2026) put indium at roughly $250/kg before the controls, rising to about $805/kg since.

On the demand side, AI optical interconnects and coherent telecom run at 1310/1550 nm, requiring InP-based lasers, photodetectors, and externally modulated lasers (EMLs). Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston said in July 2026 (Tom’s Hardware, 31 Jul 2026) the company is shipping more than 30% behind demand for EMLs.

InP supply signals at a glance

What this means for photonics and datacom buyers

Treat InP like a scarce specialty material: build in lead time, qualify a second source, and hold spec — orientation, doping, EPD, thickness — fixed across sources. Request a COA per lot and share forecasts early; planning ahead pays off.

Can GaAs or silicon photonics replace InP?

Only at the margins. GaAs suits 850 nm VCSELs and RF amplifiers and avoids indium, though gallium is also under Chinese export controls — Asia Times (3 September 2026) cites roughly $2,100/kg in Western warehouses versus about $247/kg inside China — see our GaAs vs InP comparison. Silicon photonics can carry passive waveguides, but still needs an InP gain element for 1310/1550 nm sources, so InP stays on the bill of materials.

Sourcing InP substrates in North America

Mihron Metalyx supplies InP and GaAs — plus GaSb, InAs, InSb — from bonded Toronto stock, with quotes in 48 hours and a COA per lot. Ordering to SEMI-standard spec, stated explicitly, keeps a design portable across sources; see our wafer specifications guide, our Toronto distributor profile, or the catalog.

Conclusion

InP prices tripled because China’s export controls added friction to a chain concentrated in one country supplying nearly 70% of world indium, while AI and telecom demand outran capacity. Lock spec, qualify a second source, and share forecasts early.

Sources: IQE plc 2026 Interim Results (7 Sep 2026); AXT Inc. Q2 2026 results (30 Jul 2026); Reuters (June 2026); China MOFCOM Announcement (4 Feb 2025); Asia Times (3 Sep 2026); Tom’s Hardware / Lumentum (31 Jul 2026).