Gallium Export Curbs: What They Mean for GaN and GaAs Wafer Buyers
China’s 2023 gallium and germanium export curbs have pushed feedstock prices to nine to ten times 2023 levels outside China, and with Beijing controlling an estimated 98.9% of primary gallium supply in 2025, that squeeze runs into GaN epiwafers and GaAs substrates — the two wafer families most exposed to gallium metal. North American buyers should plan for continued cost pressure and tight supply through the decade.
Where gallium enters the wafer supply chain
Gallium enters wafer production in two forms. GaN epiwafers are grown by MOCVD using trimethylgallium (TMGa) precursor — gallium is a feedstock input, not the substrate. GaAs substrates are grown from gallium metal directly, so the boule is itself a gallium compound crystal.
| Wafer type | Gallium form used | Main end markets | Feedstock exposure |
|---|---|---|---|
| GaN epiwafers | TMGa precursor (MOCVD epi layer) | EV onboard/fast chargers, RF power | Indirect, via epi precursor cost |
| GaAs substrates | Gallium metal (bulk crystal growth) | RF front-ends, VCSELs, photonics | Direct, gallium is the substrate |
The supply gap in numbers
Preliminary S&P Global estimates put 2025 gallium demand at roughly 1,000 metric tons, growing about 12% a year through 2030. Project Blue calculates China supplied 98.9% of primary gallium in 2025, and S&P Global expects ex-China gallium supply capacity to reach only 20 tons by the end of 2026 — leaving a supply gap of about 678 tons that, absent new capacity, has nowhere to be filled but China.
Why the gap won’t close before 2030
Eight announced ex-China projects, including Wagerup in Australia and Clarksville in the US, could lift ex-China gallium supply to roughly 386 tons by 2030 from about 5 tons today, S&P Global estimates. Even then, ex-China demand would still look to China for 65% of supply, by Reuters’ calculations.
Other projects are still being developed and have yet to reach full commercial production: METLEN in Greece, targeting 50 tons a year by 2028 with demand already several times that; Alcoa and Sojitz in Australia; Rio Tinto and Indium Corporation in Canada; and Nalco in India. Australia and the US pledged over $3.5 billion in April to support critical minerals projects, including gallium and germanium.
Reuters reports gallium arsenide is being replaced by indium phosphide in some applications, but InP is itself in short supply. Aeluma is going the other way: in a wafer agreement with Sumitomo Chemical Advanced Technologies reported September 17, it is building a non-InP photonics platform on 150 mm GaAs and 200–300 mm silicon it calls more available than InP — evidence substitution shifts supply risk rather than removing it, since swaps require costly requalification. Argus’s Cristina Belda says buyers are diversifying through recycling and alternative suppliers; Project Blue’s Jack Bedder says cutting China dependence materially is achievable within five years, though eliminating it is not; CRU’s Piyush Goel expects price floors or government support will be needed.
What North American buyers should do now
Treat the gap as a multi-year problem, not a short-term spike. Qualify a second gallium-based wafer source now, since requalifying GaN epi or GaAs substrate lots takes time a tight market will not leave later. Specify Certificate of Analysis documentation and SEMI-standard parameters on every order — see our wafer specifications guide — and build buffer stock. Where design permits, weigh alternatives covered in our GaAs vs. InP substrates comparison and InP substrate shortage coverage. Track Rio Tinto and Indium Corporation’s Canadian gallium work and Teck Resources’ Trail, BC germanium expansion; see our GaN wafers Canada page and Toronto distributor option for bonded inventory.
Conclusion
Three years into China’s gallium and germanium export curbs, the imbalance behind GaN and GaAs wafer costs has not resolved: feedstock prices outside China remain at 9 to 10 times 2023 levels, China still supplies nearly all primary gallium, and announced projects will not close the gap before 2030. Buyers who qualify second sources, document specifications rigorously, and track substitute-material options now will fare best.
Sourcing GaN and GaAs wafers through the gallium squeeze
Mihron Metalyx supplies GaN epiwafers and GaAs/InP substrates from a bonded Toronto warehouse, with 48-hour quotes and a Certificate of Analysis on every lot.
Contact usSources: Reuters, “Niche metals test West’s resilience to Chinese export curbs,” September 18, 2026; Compound Semiconductor, “Aeluma signs wafer agreement with Sumitomo,” September 17, 2026.
Frequently asked questions
How much gallium does China control?
Project Blue estimates China accounted for 98.9% of primary gallium supply in 2025. S&P Global expects ex-China capacity to reach only 20 tons by the end of 2026, leaving a supply gap of roughly 678 tons.
Are GaN and GaAs wafer prices affected by gallium export controls?
Indirectly but materially. Gallium and germanium feedstock prices outside China are now at 9 to 10 times 2023 levels, according to Reuters, raising cost pressure on GaN epiwafers (via TMGa precursor) and GaAs substrates (via gallium metal). Reporting does not give specific GaN or GaAs wafer price figures tied to the curbs.
How can North American buyers reduce gallium supply risk?
Qualify a second wafer source, specify Certificate of Analysis documentation on every lot, hold buffer stock, and evaluate alternative substrates such as indium phosphide where design allows. Watch Canadian supply developments including Rio Tinto and Indium Corporation’s gallium work and Teck Resources’ expanded germanium production at Trail, BC.